NBA Basketball Column: Offseason Beat

Here’s a list of guys I’m into drafting for the upcoming hoops season. Some of them are completely obvious, especially if you read me, some are interesting, and a few are off the wall. Unfortunately, most of the players I’m really intrigued with are point guards, but I tried to mix and match some others in there.  This isn’t a sleeper list (obviously), but simply a list of guys I’m feeling the man-love for early in the process.

Studs

Russell Westbrook PG OKC – I don’t want to hear about the fact he’s not a true point guard, he turns the ball over, or that he’s selfish.  I don’t care.  In fact, the more people hate on RW, the more fired up I get about him.  He doesn’t (ever) miss games, is a constant triple-double threat, and cares about defense as much as he does offense. He was a Top 10 fantasy player last season, averaging 23.6 points, 4.6 rebounds, 5.5 assists and 1.7 steals, even with the 3.6 turnovers and hitting less than one 3-pointer per game – and he still hasn’t peaked.  If I don’t get a Top 3 pick, I’m hoping to snag Westbrook in Round 1.

Carmelo Anthony F NYK – New York’s schedule is perfect in the playoffs, Melo has torn it up in the Olympics and the thorn in his side known as Jeremy Lin is heading to Houston. I have no idea if Melo’s still going to be healthy when the fantasy playoffs roll around, but if he is, that 4-4-4-4-4-4-2 weekly schedule to finish out the season is going to come in very handy. And don’t forget, the guy just scored 37 points in 14 minutes against Nigeria, and there’s no reason he can’t do it again this season against the Bobcats, and several other struggling NBA teams.

Kevin Love F/C MIN – I did not think Love would blow up again last season and was completely wrong.  The guy is a beast and should come into this season with even more confidence after another big year and a solid run for Team USA.  He was a Top 5 fantasy player last season according to Basketballmonster.com, despite missing 11 games, and was No. 4 in the league in scoring, No. 1 in double-doubles, No. 2 in rebounding, and tied for 21^st in 3-pointers made with 105.  He’s entering his fifth season and should continue to be a Top 5 fantasy player, despite the lack of blocks for a big man. 

Josh Smith F ATL – Smoove put the Hawks on his back and carried them last season, worthy of the No. 12 pick in fantasy drafts after not missing a game, and despite hitting just 63 percent of his free throws.  The Hawks traded Joe Johnson for a six-pack of Natty Light and a bag of Fritos, and also got rid of their small forwards, meaning Josh should start there this season.  He’s going to get more shots per game and his numbers should easily rise with Joe in Brooklyn, meaning he could also commit a million turnovers while trying to play small forward.  But the points, rebounds, steals and blocks will be there once again. If Smith is there in Round 2, there’s a pretty good chance I’m taking him, even though he may heave up seven cringe-worthy shots every night, as well as turn it over a ton.

Kyrie Irving PG CLE – Irving tore it up for the Select Team warming up the Olympic team this summer and should be fully recovered from his broken hand by the start of the season.  The days of Byron Scott babying him should be a distant memory and Irving could end up being the best point guard in the league not named Chris Paul or Deron Williams.  And the scary thing is that he’s entering just his second season and should fully blow up for a bad Cleveland team.

Ty Lawson PG DEN – Lawson was worth a second-round pick last season according to Basketballmonster.com, and he missed only five games.  The only thing he doesn’t do is block shots, and his numbers should be even better this year for the Nuggets.  Andre Miller is still around to mess with his schwerve, but is old enough that Lawson should get a ton of minutes at point guard, so much so that we might not even notice Miller hanging out in his shadow this season.

Soon-to-be-studs

Goran Dragic PG PHX – Dragic was allowed to walk from Houston to Phoenix, where he’ll replace living legend Steve Nash.  Dragic played in 66 games last season, but started in just 28 of them.  And when he started, he averaged 18 points, 3.5 rebounds, 8.4 assists, 1.8 steals and 1.8 3-pointers (38%).  He also racked up a whopping 3.2 turnovers, but hit 49 percent of his shots and 84 percent of his free throws.  I have no problem living with the turnovers because he’s in line to start 82 times for the Suns.  

Klay Thompson SG GSW - Thompson averaged 17 points and two 3-pointers over his last 38 games of the season, once Monta Ellis was sent to Milwaukee, and helped a lot of us win fantasy leagues with his strong play down the stretch. Thompson should start out of the gate and could be ready for a monster season, if he can stay focused and not believe his own hype.

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist SF CHA – The No. 2 pick in the draft should start right off the bat for one of the league’s worst teams.  There are concerns about his shot and he’s going to make a lot of mistakes, but he should also post solid numbers in nearly every category and challenge for Rookie of the Year.  Just be sure not to overpay for him, and wait until the time is right to draft him – which will be in the later-middle rounds of your draft.

The Rest

Rajon Rondo PG BOS – Arch nemesis and former teammate Ray Allen is now in Miami and Rondo is coming off a playoff run that saw him average 17.3 points, 6.9 rebounds, 11.9 assists and 2.4 steals in 19 games.  Yes, he’s been a better player in the postseason than during the regular one, but he’s been given the keys to the Celtics (much to the chagrin of Allen) and is going to get better as long as he can stay healthy.  He won’t hit many threes and isn’t a great free throw shooter, but I think he’ll show a lot of improvement over last year’s regular-season averages of 11.9 points, 4.8 rebounds, 11.7 assists and 1.8 steals.  The key is where you draft him.  If you can get him after Round 3, which is entirely possible if your fellow league members take a look at his Basketballmonster.com rankings from last season, he should be a value pick.  Just beware of the poor free throw shooting, potential for injury, as well as the potential to score less than 14 points per game.  But he’s only 26 years old, and could put it all together this season in Boston.

JaVale McGee C DEN – You guys knew McGee would be on my list, as usual.  Any time a guy has the potential to triple-double with blocks and is fun (and funny) to watch, I’m in.  He saw his minutes cut once he was traded to Denver last season, but still averaged 10 points, six boards and 1.6 blocks in 20 games for the Nuggets.  I don’t see any way he doesn’t start this season after getting paid, and 13 points, 10 boards and 2.5 blocks are well within reach, if not an expectation.  Just beware that he shot 37 percent from the line in Denver last season, and isn’t the one of the more court savvy guys in the league.  

Mike Conley PG MEM – Conley quietly posted great numbers all season last year and should do so again.  He’s not flashy, nor a guy you need to draft too early, but should return excellent value and be a solid starting fantasy point guard. According to Basketballmonster.com, he was worth a second-round pick due to his low turnovers and quality production across the line last season.  If you spend the early part of your draft getting flashy studs that will score a ton of points, getting Conley in Round 4 or 5 should pay very nice dividends.

J.R. Smith G/F NYK – Landry Fields is in Toronto and Iman Shumpert is going to miss time after knee surgery, clearing the way for Smith to (hopefully) start at shooting guard.  He’s a tough guy to get a read on and has been highly inconsistent throughout his career.  But he appears to have found a home in New York and could finally be ready for a full breakout season. In 13 April games for the Knicks last year, Smith averaged 16 points, 4.4 rebounds, 4.2 assists, 2.0 steals and 2.7 3-pointers per game.  And if he can come anywhere close to that to start this season, he could be very fun to own for a fairly low price tag.

Nicolas Batum G/F POR – Batum will be back in Portland after doing his best to get to Minnesota over the summer.  He was worth a 3^rd- or 4^th-round fantasy pick last season despite failing to live up to the hype and playing inconsistently.  But he is clearly one of Portland’s best players and will have more expectations after signing the big contract in July.  He only started 34 times in 59 games last season, averaging 15.2 points, 5.2 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 0.9 steals, 1.0 blocks and 1.9 3-pointers in those games, to go along with just 1.8 turnovers.  He also shoots it very well from the floor, downtown and the line, and he should be ready to fully break out this season.

Isaiah Thomas PG SAC – Despite being taken with the final pick of the 2011 draft, Thomas started 37 of the 65 games he played in last season for the Kings, averaging 14.8 points, 3.1 rebounds, 5.4 assists, 1.0 steals and 1.6 3-pointers in those starts.  He was a key pickup off the waiver wire and should have every chance to succeed again this season, although Aaron Brooks will be there to try to steal some of his point guard minutes, which makes me a little nervous.  But Thomas is another potentially strong point guard who should come with a fairly cheap price tag, especially when compared to the big names.

Kyle Lowry PG TOR – Lowry was a monster at times for the Rockets last season before going down early with an abdominal injury that required surgery after becoming infected.  In his 38 starts he averaged 16 points, 5.3 rebounds, 7.2 assists, 1.8 steals and 1.9 3-pointers for Houston, along with 3.2 turnovers.  He is now in Toronto where he should start over Jose Calderon.  They’re thrilled to have him and he should be healthy to start the season.  He’s another point guard that could fly under the radar and have a huge season, if he can stay healthy and avoid a timeshare with Calderon.

Mo Williams PG UTA – I’m not a big Mo-Will fan, but the simple fact is he was traded to Utah and will be their starting point guard, as Devin Harris was traded to Atlanta.  Williams should have plenty left in the tank, but could also have some injury concerns while clocking in at 30 years old (in December).  He should easily play in front of Earl Watson and Jamaal Tinsley and still has the ability to score, assist, steal and three, making him a nice value target in your draft.

Glen Davis PF ORL – Ryan Anderson signed with the Hornets, clearing the way for Davis to start at power forward in Orlando.  I’m not going to pretend to know what kind of damage the Dwight Howard situation has caused for the Magic, but this could be the year we see Davis turn into a beast.  In his 13 starts for Orlando last season he averaged 15.5 points, 8.3 rebounds, 1.3 steals and 0.5 blocks.  Yes, more blocks would be nice, but Davis should be primed for the best season of his career, unless Gustavo Ayon is better than I think he is. 

Damian Lillard PG POR – Despite being a rookie, Lillard is set to start at point guard for the Blazers and he looked fantastic in Summer League.  I’m thinking he could average 14 points, four boards, five assists, a steal and a 3-pointer per game in Portland.  When I need a point guard after the middle rounds of my draft, Lillard is going to be high on my list.  And if you’re worried about a veteran unseating him, Nolan Smith and Ronnie Price shouldn’t strike much fear in your heart.  This job belongs to Lillard.

Royce White PF HOU – White is the rookie I’m now most excited about, if he can win the starting power forward job in Houston.  Luis Scola was amnesty waived and White will compete with Patrick Patterson for the starting gig.  He’s a sneaky passer and should contribute in nearly all categories for one of the worst teams in the league.  I can’t think of a reason White won’t start, but then again, this is Kevin McHale we’re talking about.  If he does start, expect him to be a finalist for Rookie of the Year, and a good value pick in fantasy leagues.

Bonus Player

Serge Ibaka F/C OKC – Despite not getting consistent minutes in OKC, Ibaka still put up fairly sensational numbers last season, averaging 9.1 points, 7.5 rebounds, 0.5 steals and a whopping 3.7 blocks per game.  If you draft Ibaka, chances are you’re going to win blocks every week (in H2H) or on the season (in Roto scoring).  Add in the fact the 27 minutes he’s gotten per game over the last two seasons could actually rise, and he looks like a can’t miss fantasy player again this season.  Just know that if you take him in Round 1 or 2, you might have a scoring issue unless your draft goes perfectly the rest of the way.  According to Basketballmonster.com, Ibaka was worth a first-round pick last season, but I’m not sure I’m feeling him that much.  You have to get guys who score early in the draft, and taking Ibaka that early could leave you behind the 8-ball.

Feel free to tell me who is on your list, who I missed, and anything else on Twitter.